Market Commentary – January 11th, 2023

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $17,500 USD and Ethereum at $1,341 USD. Crypto markets are infamous for their volatility, however in spite of this, the holiday break was exceptionally quiet. Realized volatility over December for BTC declined to multi-year lows of 24.6%, of which there are very few instances with similar levels. However, all prior examples preceded much higher volatility environments on the road ahead, with most trading higher, and just one (Nov 2018) trading dramatically lower. On-chain activity for Ethereum and Bitcoin remain low. Bitcoin inflow volumes to exchanges are currently between $350M

Market Commentary – December 13th, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $17,715 USD and Ethereum at $1,310 USD. According to blockchain analytics firm Kaiko, historically, the BTC-USD versus BTC-USDT trading volume could be considered an indicator of institutional inflows into crypto, as institutional investors would typically buy BTC using fiat directly instead of using an onramp like the USDT.  The dominance of USDT based BTC trades have risen to 84%, implying that USD trades only made up 16% of trading volume, a level seen just before the COVID selloff and way before the start of the 2021 bull market. While

Market Commentary – November 29th, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $16,300 USD and Ethereum at $1,207 USD. The cryptocurrency market has continued to consolidate after a chaotic few weeks, with prices trading within a narrow range. As the dust settles following the collapse of FTX, the aggregate response of Bitcoin holders is slowly becoming clearer. A key question is whether the recent sell-off can be better characterized as simply a continuation of the bearish trend, or perhaps a trigger of a deeper psychological shift amongst investors. Among all Bitcoin holders, the entities holding < 1 BTC (also labelled as

Market Commentary – November 9th, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $17,600 USD and Ethereum at $1,215 USD. Bitcoin made a new 52 week low yesterday (Tuesday Nov 8th) as crypto markets fell after the events that unfolded between FTX and Binance this week. This past Sunday, Binance’s CEO, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, announced that his exchange is liquidating its stash of FTX’s native token FTT—prompting a rush of withdrawals from FTX users, with weekly stablecoin outflows from FTX reaching $451 million. CZ said that he “won’t support people who lobby against other industry players behind their backs,” in an apparent

Market Commentary – October 27th, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $20,700 USD and Ethereum at $1,575 USD. According to Glassnode, there has been a marked shift in balance change behaviour by most Bitcoin wallet cohorts. All ranges of Bitcoin holders from less than 1 BTC to Whales (up to 10k BTC) have altered their behaviour from one of net balance decline and distribution (selling their Bitcoin), and towards one of net accumulation and balance increase (buying Bitcoin). This suggests that market participants consistently have a tendency towards buying and  accumulation at range lows. Glassnode’s data on crypto trading platforms

Market Commentary – October 14th, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $19,400 USD and Ethereum at $1,315 USD. Recent weeks have seen an uncharacteristically low degree of volatility in Bitcoin prices, in stark contrast to equity, credit, and forex markets, where central bank rate hikes, inflation, and a strong US dollar continue to wreak havoc. Against in this macro backdrop, Bitcoin has been remarkably stable and has gained ground against many assets on a relative scale. The crypto space was rocked last week after bankrupt crypto lender Celsius revealed the names and transaction history of hundreds of thousands of its

Market Commentary – October 6th, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $20,025 USD and Ethereum at $1,360 USD. Bitcoin prices remain remarkably stable, in a multi-month consolidation between $18k and $20k. It is extremely rare for Bitcoin prices to stay stationary for so long, suggesting heightened probabilities of volatility on the horizon. Bitcoin mining hashrate reached new all-time-highs this week. The cost of production for Bitcoin is rising at a time where miner revenues have only just recovered from the recent capitulation. By numerous models, it is likely that the average cost of Bitcoin production hovers just below current prices;

Market Commentary – September 23rd, 2022

Crypto Market At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $18,900 and Ethereum at $1,288. Crypto markets were under pressure this week after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 bps on Wednesday (more details under the Macro section). During the course of the week, there was a net outflow of over $200M worth of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges as its price held around its low set in June 2022. This level may have attracted buyers. Exchange netflows are the net amount of inflows minus outflows of a specific crypto-asset going in/out of centralized exchanges. Crypto going into exchanges

Market Commentary – September 16th, 2022

Crypto Market Bitcoin (BTC) has now been within a persistent market downtrend for ten months since the all-time high in November 2021. This week, Bitcoin spot prices touched the $18,649 level, marking the second lowest low at a 72.5%  drawdown from the cycle top. Compared to prior bear cyclical bottoms, the 2022 contraction has not been as significant on a percent drawdown perspective. The lows in 2015, 2018 and 2020 reached over 77%+ drawdowns from all time highs. With Bitcoin trading 72.5% below the Nov 2021 all time high this week, the market has many similarities to the latest phase